𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 👎

Average mortgage rates crept a bit higher last week, although the movement wasn’t much and was mainly due to low trading volumes during the end of year holidays. Mortgage rates are tied to the markets, and the low trading volume can cause a bit of choppiness for rates.

𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱 👍

The week between Christmas and New Years is usually a quiet week for mortgage rates, and we don’t usually see much movement.

China lifted most of their COVID restrictions. Crude oil increasing with weather issues, Texas refineries closed and China opening. More than a third of Texas Gulf Coast refining capacity was shut over the past few days, including the two biggest plants in the US.

What a mess if you were traveling over the holiday; thousands of flights cancelled, and it won’t get better for another couple of days.

Inflation is slowing, all recent data confirms inflation has seen its worse. CPI, PPI, PCE all lower than the prior months. The Fed is still ready to keep increasing rates to push inflation back in its box at 2.0%. It is an uphill fight; inflation isn’t going to drop back to 2.00% in 2023. Mortgage rates through the first half of 2023 should hover between 6.0% and 6.5%, if rates fall below 6.0% the US will be in recession; some believe we are already there.

🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:

– This week’s economic calendar is thin with just two data points of import, Nov pending home sales on Wednesday and Dec Chicago purchasing mgrs. index on Friday.

– Holidays: Mortgage rates are tied to the performance of securities on the bond market, which was closed Monday in observance of Christmas and will close early Friday for New Years. The bond market will also be closed on Monday 12/2 for New Years. This should help mortgage rates remain basically unchanged for the week.

Technicals:

The UMBS 5.5 coupon (MBS or mortgage backed securities) at 100.50, -19bps

The 10yr Treasury yield at 3.83