Verify your mortgage eligibility (Dec 1st, 2023)
𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗽 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱 👍
Average mortgage rates didn’t move much over the last week.
𝗠𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗴𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗲 ⚠️Verify your mortgage eligibility (Dec 1st, 2023)
Rates could make big moves this week as we get two major events – consumer inflation data and the Fed meeting and press conference. Rates could improve or get worse, depending on how the data comes out as well as how markets react. It’s a good week to stay in touch with your mortgage professional and discuss locking if concerned.
🗓️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) The Fed, 2) Central Banks and 3) Inflation.Verify your mortgage eligibility (Dec 1st, 2023)
1) The Fed: On Wednesday we get the Fed’s latest Interest Rate Decision and Policy statement. The bond market has a 50BPS rate hike priced in. However, there still can be a lot of volatility even if the Fed does hike by 50BPS. This volatility can come from one of three areas (or even from all three areas at the same time). These three areas are: The change in the policy statement language compared to the prior statement, The path of rates and inflation in their Economic Projections (dot plot chart) and the live presser with Fed Chair Powell.
2) Central Banks: Our own Fed is not the only game in town this week. It’s actually a busy week for central banks around the globe, some of which could also play a role in mortgage rates this week. We will see the ECB announce a rate decision on Thursday, and the Bank of England also meets this week. Central banks in Mexico, Norway, the Philippines, Switzerland, and Taiwan also are meeting but won’t have much of an effect on us here at home.
3) Inflation: On Tuesday (the day before the Fed release) we will get a very important reading on inflation with the Consumer Price Index. Last month’s CPI inflation data came in much better than expected, taking rates from the 7’s and dropping them into the mid-6’s. If the data comes in lower again, we could see a similar reaction, although not likely to be quite as strong. Still, if the data comes in showing inflation is slowing, and sets the stage for the Fed to slow down the rate hikes, we could see con/con rates fall back into the 5’s. Friday’s wholesale inflation data though came in higher than expected, and although it doesn’t have to signal higher consumer inflation it wasn’t well received.Verify your mortgage eligibility (Dec 1st, 2023)
The UMBS 5.5 coupon (MBS or mortgage backed securities) at 100.88 and is up +11bps. There is a small bond rollover of about -6bps, basically inconsequential and doesn’t affect pricing.
The 10yr Treasury yield at 3.54, up a bit after failing to break through resistance at 3.47.Verify your mortgage eligibility (Dec 1st, 2023)
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